Free PDF Why Most Things Fail: Evolution, Extinction and Economics, by Paul Ormerod
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Why Most Things Fail: Evolution, Extinction and Economics, by Paul Ormerod
Free PDF Why Most Things Fail: Evolution, Extinction and Economics, by Paul Ormerod
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From the Back Cover
Failure is the most fundamental feature ofbiological, social and economic systems. Just as species fail--and become extinct--so do companies, brands and public policies. And while failure may be hard to handle, understanding the pervasive nature of failure in the world of human societies and economies is essential for those looking to succeed. Linking economic models with models of biological evolution, Why Most Things Fail identifies the subtle patterns that comprise the apparent disorder of failure and analyzes why failure arises. Throughout the book, author Paul Ormerod exposes the flaws in some of today's most basic economic assumptions, and examines how professionals in both business and government can help their organizations survive and thrive in a world that has become too complex. Along the way, Ormerod discusses how the Iron Law of Failure applies to business and government, and reveals how you can achieve optimal social and economic outcomes by properly adapting to a world characterized by constant change, evolution and disequilibrium. Filled with in-depth insight, expert advice and illustrative examples, Why Most Things Fail will show you why failure is so common and what you can do to become one of the few who succeed.
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About the Author
Paul Ormerod, a theoretical economist and successful businessman, has served as the head of the Economic Assessment Unit at The Economist and the director of economics at the Henley Centre for Forecasting in England. He has taught economics at the University of London and the University of Manchester. Ormerod is founder of the consulting firm Volterra and is an alumnus of Oxford University and Cambridge University.
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Product details
Paperback: 272 pages
Publisher: Wiley; 1 edition (February 20, 2007)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 0470089199
ISBN-13: 978-0470089194
Product Dimensions:
5.6 x 0.6 x 7.5 inches
Shipping Weight: 11.4 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
Average Customer Review:
3.2 out of 5 stars
24 customer reviews
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
#1,362,865 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
It's hard to get the answer to "Why Most Things Fail." The book goes deep into mathematical formulas. Admittedly, I don't bring to this reading a background in math or economics. So, most of this exploration lost me. However, since I was still looking for the answer as to WHY most things fail I did look for the conclusions and links. Even if I were able to resolve Nash equilibria and the like, there was no correlation to the supposed narrative exploration that I could see.This does not mean that there is no value to this book. What Ormerod does posit is that there are immutable Power Laws affecting all matter - species, ideologies and businesses alike. All things fail. That alone is a powerful reframing. Existence of anything could probably be more successfully extended when strategies are anchored to this position.In one small paragraph toward the end, Ormerod does state rather succinctly the reason why things fail. It is that we as humans are limited in our ability to understand dynamic and complex environments. While we certainly can't grasp everything, there are more correlations perhaps worthy of another study. Our understanding has increased over the millennia in direct correlation to the length and quality of our existence. That is why the pursuit of information and insights, even if they are difficult to follow as they are in this book,is worthwhile.
A great read - a little dry in parts - I'd forgotten how dry economics can be - last studied them (in school) in the late 1970s!!!!Still can't get beyond the "equilibria" notion - in the real world "all other things are NEVER equal" - plus humans do not make rational choices.Seems like economists would have figured that out by now - it's not like hyperbolic discounting is a new theory.
It`s an excellent book about extinction, mainly companies` extinction, with serious critics to many economic models. Even though criticism of economical models is not new and can be found in many books, it shows the limits of each approach and why these simplifications can have impacts on planning. It`s not a book for those who are not interested in a in-depht and serious reading about the subject. I`d recommend it to economists and value investors that are interested about why even large companies usually have a so limited longevity, since their life cycle is not so bounded as it is for a living being and how extinctions happens. Is it causes by competition among companies at the same industry? Is it caused by external causes, like general economic crisis? Or maybe is it caused by both?Paul Ormerod has a serious approach to this problem and shows it in an accessible way for those who have any background on economics. I recommend it for anyone interested on the subject.
Ormerod seems to be adressing his book to public managers or business managers. In my opinion, he delves too deeply into economic analyses that are not necessary for the ultimately simple and straightforward conclusions that he arrives at. Instead, the economic analysis seems to be intended more to prove a point to the vast majority of economic experts that he berates and disagrees with. The chapters are disjointed and at times it can be difficult to tell what point the author is trying to make. From the attitude that the author displays in the book, I'm sure he would discount my review, claiming that I'm too simple-minded to follow his logic. So be it. I didn't like this book at all.
I bought this book hoping for insight into "why most things fail." What I got was a rambling argument grounded primarily on the similarity of the frequency distributions of business failure and biological failures (extinctions). Frankly, the relationship hardly strikes me as logically necessary, and the relation could well be spurious (or coincidental). But I'm no PhD and didn't give it a lot of thought, so I could well be wrong.What I am certain of is that the book offered little else, no corrolaries, certainly no explanation of the reasons "why most things fail," and no other practical insights or knowledge.Bottom line, wait for the book's appearance in the discount bin before buying.
This book is written at the seventh grade level and is consistently vapid. There are intriguing ideas--the similarities of rates of extinction and failures of businesses, but there's no real attempt to explain these similarities beyond telling us that the relevant curves obey a power law. We already knew that lots of businesses fail and that it's hard even for giant companies to keep up, but there's nothing added here that explains any of this.If you want exciting pop economics, read Steven Landsburg.
I have two perspectives for the review of Mr. Ormerod's fine book. First - if you are new to this subject, the book is interesting throughout as it helps explain, or at least builds a framework to hang our hats own about why some things seem to succeed and others fail. There are multitudes of examples from the pet rock (succeed), to the Edsel (a considered failure).Second - if you are familiar with the subject of extinction theory and dynamic systems, the book starts out slow, but really hits its stride in Chapter 8 "Doves & Hawks" (and forward) as we start to get into examples of dynamic theory and extinction theory/data. In Chapter 10 "The Powers That Be" we learn that systems in which the connections are not random but follow a power law have completely different properties than ones that do, since it is the structure of the connections between the component parts (i.e. agents) which gives systems their distinctive and characteristic features.No, don't be afraid, as this is not a technical book as I make it out to be as all the examples are easy to read and comprehend. If you are interested in this subject, other fine books to review are Ubiquity by Mark Buchanan, The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, or Deep Simplicity by John Gribbin.
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